MemeBox FutureBlogger

A Wave to the Future

juldrich — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 18:01:05 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Toshiba has developed a new gesture-based interface for flat-panel displays. It is easy to see how the technology might someday be used to replace the remote control, and it is also easy to envision how the technology will make for more interactive video games. But how else might the technology take root in the workplace of the future?

I envision a couple of possibilities. For one, doctors and surgeons will be able to access medical information without needing to touch anything (and, thus, not risk picking up any germs); students will be able to access educational information in new and innovative ways (imagine spinning around a complex 3-D molecule or a strand of DNA); advertisers will engage potential customers in unique ways; architects and designers will be able to more quickly manipulate models; physical therapists will be able to design programs that patients can practice on their television; athletes will be able to hone their reflexes on custom-made programs; and, more innovatively, manufacturers should be able to use a reverse version of the technology to show customers how to repair and fix things.

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2011

Will I Die?

juldrich — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 20:16:45 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve

I ask this question from neither a deep-seated fear of dying nor an egotistical desire to live forever. I simply ask it from the perspective of someone who is deeply interested in the accelerating pace of change and is concerned we are heading into a future for which few of us are really prepared.

Let me begin by sharing a couple of recent news items which speak to the astounding progress being made in the field of health care.

To begin, if I am in need of surgery sometime within the next few years, it is likely that that surgery will be conducted with the assistance of a robot. Given that these robots are already better than many human surgeons, this suggest I will not only get out of the hospital faster but that I will be in better condition when I do so. Continued advances in robotics will only improve surgical outcomes over the coming years.

Next, say, I am in an accident. There is now a very good chance – due to advances in the Nationwide Health Information Network, personal electronic records and the ever-improving capability of the Internet – that my providers will be able to rapidly access a growing wealth of medical knowledge in order to keep me alive.

Much of this knowledge will likely be genetic in nature and it is not unreasonable to believe – given the extraordinary advances in genomics as well as the possibility that I will within a few years be able to sequence my own genome for less than $1000 dollars - that I will soon be able to avail myself to a growing category of drugs individually tailored to treat me for everything from heart disease and diabetes to a wide variety of cancers.

Assuming then that I dodge some of these pesky middle-age risks, there is a very real chance, according to this article, that I’ll soon be able to “grow replacement body parts.” We can already replace our aging hips and knees, but what happens when I can replace my lungs and, eventually, my heart?

The question is a serious one because society is closer to this future than most people realize.

Alas, these advances – which I remind you are only from the past few days – are just the beginning. I am now 44 years and it is not unreasonable to think, given recent medical progress, that I will live to 100.

But even this is the wrong way to think about this issue. The question I – and all of us, really – need to ask is what further advances will be made in the next 56 years of my life and how might they extend my life past 100 years of age?

Category: Biotechnology
Year: Beyond
Tags: die, dying, jackuldrich, longevity, lifespan, death, life

A Penny for Your Thoughts

juldrich — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 17:02:36 +0000

Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.unlearning101.com

Last week, a colleague of mine at Future Blogger, Alvis Brigis, suggested that the coming reign of online video broadcasting as the "most ubiquitous and accessible form of communication" may be short-lived. In its stead, he suggested that brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) may replaced it.

To many people the idea of brain-to-computer or even brain-to-brain communication might seem a little "out there." I disagree and think that Alvis is on the right track. As evidence, I submit this recent article on the U.S. Army’s plans to invest in a "Thought Helmut" for voiceless communication. And lest anyone think that voiceless communication is some far-off, fuzzy, futuristic technology just check out this amazing video demonstrating an early prototype of this technology.

Until I can read your thoughts directly, I’d be interested in reading your reactions to this possibility and how you think it may necessitate that we unlearn some things—such as, perhaps, how we communicate in the future.

Category: Communication
Year: General
Tags: jackuldrich, alvisbrigis, bci, brain, braincomputerinterface, interface, communication

Personalized Medicine's Accelerating Future

juldrich — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:43:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

This past week I gave a presentation on “The Future of Genomics” to the Minnesota Hospital Association. In the course of my speech, I listed a variety of reasons why society is accelerating toward a future of more personalized medicine, including advances in DNA microarray technology; the growing wealth of genetic knowledge being facilitated by such tools as the “Wikipedia” for Genes and the new “SNPedia;” private money (in the form of the Archon X Prize); the growing number of start-up companies who are making it more possible for people to have either a portion or their entire genome sequenced by companies such as 23andMe, DeCode, Navigenics and Knome); and the recent passage of the Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act (GINA).

Alas, none of these things speak to the possibility like real results. To that end, I’d like to highlight just two articles I came across this morning. The first is from the Wall Street Journal and the article discusses how an old heart drug, bucindolol, has been found to reduce death for people who have a certain genetic mutuation by up to 38%. The second article, “Chemotherapy Get Personal,” reviews the findings of a recent study in the journal Genes and Development which explains how advanced computer algorithms are analyzing the activity of 20,000 genes to better match specific chemotherapy drugs with individual cancer patients.

Category: Biotechnology
Year: General

Businesses' Newest Tool: The Supercomputer

juldrich — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:22:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Yesterday, Cray, the self-described “supercomputer company” officially moved into the personal computing realm when it announced it’s new personal supercomputer, the CX1.

For years, supercomputers have been considered indispensable for large corporations. For example, using supercomputers, Boeing was able to reduce by seven-fold (from 77 to 11) the number of aircraft wings it needed to physically construct for its new “787” Dreamliner before finding the right one. In much the same way, the automotive industry has used supercomputing to help it reduce from 5 years to 18 months the time it takes to move a new automobile design from the drawing board to the showroom floor.

The relevance of Cray’s news is that now a number small and medium-sized businesses will be able to similarly avail themselves of the power of supercomputers. And what might these supercomputers help businesses do? Excellent question.

The best way to answer that is by providing some recent examples of companies using supercomputing:

1. Pringle’s has used supercomputers to help redesign the shape of its iconic potato chip so that it flies off the assembly line and into the can in a faster and more efficient manner.

2. Proctor & Gamble used a supercomputer to redesign its Pamper’s diaper brand.

Category: Business & Work
Year: General

A MAV-erick Defense Policy

juldrich — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:18:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

At present, the United States government spends hundreds of billions of dollars in an effort to keep this country safe at home and defeat its enemies abroad. Much of the money is well spent but, often, I can’t help but feel we are wasting precious resources fighting “the last war.” As I argued in this piece a few weeks ago, we should instead be “studying the first six months of the next war.”

To end this end, I’d like to introduce you to a revolutionary new technology which could, in the words of the chief scientist of the U.S. Air Force, be a real “game-changer.” The Air Force calls the technology Micro Air Vehicles (or MAVs) and they are small, robotic drones (roughly the size of small birds) that could conceivably follow a terrorist back into a cave in Afghanistan and eliminate him.

Category: Business & Work
Year: General
Tags: uav, microdrone, military, plane, airplane, robotic

The Future of War

juldrich — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 14:27:14 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from jumpthecurve.net and dotheimpossible08.com

In 2005, I wrote a book on General George C. Marshall entitled “Soldier, Statesman, Peacemaker: Leadership Lessons from George C. Marshall.” One of my favorite quotes of Marshall’s is the advice he pounded into the heads of his junior officers: “Study the first six months of the next war.”

It was great advice in the 1920s and 1930s (when Marshall trained over 200 officers who would later become generals during World War II), and it is still great advice today. To this end, I’d like to direct you to two news articles from today’s papers. The first is from The Guardian and it discusses how the brain will be the battlefield of the future. Among other things it discusses how drugs may soon be used as “pharmacological land mines,” and how the advances in neuroscience could alter our definition of torture.

The second article reviews how the U.S. may be vulnerable to Internet attacks such as those which Russia is currently employing in its war against Georgia.

Together, the two stories strongly suggest that military planners should be “studying the first six months of the next war” because the next war is likely to be radically different from that which they are currently planning today.

Category: Business & Work
Year: General

Keep Your Mind's Eye on Cybernetics

juldrich — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 17:19:22 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Imagine sitting in your home and being able to control a device in a different room, a different city or even a different country by thought alone. Sounds impossible doesn’t it? Well, accordingly to this fascinating article from Popular Mechanics, advances in the field of cybernetics are occurring so rapidly that such things may be possible in the not-too-distant future.

Consider this: a monkey in North Carolina can already send a signal to Japan (where it controls a robot) faster than it can send a message from its brain to its own muscles. One immediate practical application of this technology may occur in the field of surgery whereby a surgeon could control a small robotic device faster and more precisely than she could move her hand. In a field like brain surgery such a distinction could make a big difference.

It will be some time before other cybernetic devices move into the mainstream, but it is interesting to consider how such mind-machine devices may change how we perceive and interact with our environment in the future. For example, imagine being able to control a robot by thought alone. Forget to feed your dog this morning, just “think” your bot to do it. Forget to water the plants or turn off the iron? Not a problem. A solution is just a thought away. (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2017

Robots Advance

juldrich — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 03:38:15 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Last week, I explained how humans might soon be learning things from robots. Today, I’d like to explain why robots might become a more integral part of our lives faster than most people expect.

Yesterday, Technology Review published an interesting article entitled: “Robots Learns to Use Tools.” What is really intriguing about the article, which describes a new robot called the UMass Mobile Manipulator or UMan for short, is that the robot is employing sophisticated algorithms to teach itself how to deal with unfamiliar objects.

One of the major barriers to date with robotics is that programmers have had to write complicated software code to help robots deal with almost every contingency that it might encounter. For example, for a household robot to be effective, it needs to recognize every item that might conceivably be in someone house – everything from a pair of scissors to a flower vase. This is no easy chore.

In the near future, however, robots need not necessarily know how to handle every object; they merely need to learn how to deal with that object in an appropriate fashion. Using the scissors as example, UMan can study the device and then can tinker with the blades until it understands how they are connected and how the object operates. Presumably, the robot will then know that it would be inappropriate to “run with scissors.” (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: General
Tags: robots, householdrobots, umass, uman

A Trillion Reasons to Care About Genomics

juldrich — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:49:11 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

I speak to a great many student groups and I am often struck by how few of them appreciate the difference between one million, one billion and one trillion. (In the name of fairness, the same is true of many adults). Perhaps, it is because the three figures are all large numbers that most people don’t think there is an appreciable difference. Perhaps, it is because the words – million, billion, and trillion – the rhyme; or maybe it’s just because they’re dumb—or have had poor teachers. I really don’t know.

One way I have tried to convey the difference between the numbers is by explaining the figures in a different way. To wit:

One million seconds was 12 days ago; One billion seconds was roughly 30 years ago; One trillion seconds was approximately 30,000 years ago – 28,000 B.C.!

My point with the analogy is that one trillion of anything is a really BIG number, and it is much, much different than one billion. This analogy is important because on January 17, 2006 the Wellcome Sanger Institute announced it had archived it’s one billionth DNA sequence. It was an impressive accomplishment.

Well, today, Wired magazine reported that the prominent genetics institute sequenced its trillionth base of DNA. This is a one thousand-fold improvement in just over two years. (cont.)

Category: Biotechnology
Year: General
Tags: genomics, wired, dna, genesequencing, exponentials, orderofmagnitude

15 Ways Nanotechnology is Making Life Better Today

juldrich — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 17:22:23 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Nanotechnology is expected to be a $2.6 trillion market by 2015. At the heart of this big new sector is something very small – molecules. To understand how and why nanotechnology – which is defined as the manipulation of matter at the molecular level – matters, you can begin at home.

The Writing is Off-the-Wall

Behr and others are now using nanoparticles to produce anti-mildew paints and anti-graffiti paints. Another company is perfecting a nano-enhanced wall paint that blocks cellphone calls and, longer-term, researchers expect to create a nano-solar paint that can turn your wall and even your house into a giant solar cell.

Scratch-Free

BASF has developed a nanoceramic material that is three times more resistant to scratching. It is already being employed on kitchen tabletops and car exteriors. The company hopes to have self-healing materials on the market in the near future.

Wipe Away Your Worries

Pilkington’s “Activ” glass uses nanoparticles of titanium dioxide to create self-cleaning windows; while Eddie Bauer, Tommy Hilfiger and Brooks Brothers all sell clothes that contain tiny “nano-whiskers” and make pants, shirts and ties resistant to stains of every kind. Upholstery and carpet are up next.

Wrap Your Head Around This: The New Flat Will Be Round

Nanostructured polymer films are being used in next-generation OLED (organic light emitting diode) lights. The benefit is that the lights are ten times more energy-efficient than regular lightbulbs and can be wrapped around poles. Super-thin, flexible electronic television screens that can be curved to create a more immersive experience are on the drawing board. (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: General

Unlearning Death

juldrich — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 15:17:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.unlearning101.com

In 1899, just a few years before the Wright brothers achieved their historic accomplishment, Lord Kelvin – then one of the world’s brightest men and most accomplished scientists – declared heavier than air machines to be "impossible."

He was wrong. To add insult to injury, Lord Kelvin was proved wrong by a pair of bicycle repairmen from Dayton, Ohio.

A few years ago, a relatively unknown computer scientist, Aubrey de Grey, declared that aging should not be viewed as something which will necessarily ultimately result in death. Rather, he theorized that aging is a disease and should be treated as such.

The outcry from the scientific community was similar to Lord Kelvin’s reaction to human flight. One group of scientists even declared that de Grey’s idea was "so far from plausible that it commands no respect at all within the informed scientific community."

Well, according to this article in Wired, the idea is now beginning to gain some acceptance within scientific circles. (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2020
Tags: death, aging, aubreydegrey, degrey

Learning From Robots

juldrich — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 16:10:52 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

When contemplating the future, people need to keep a very open mind about what might be possible. Consider this article which describes how researchers at UC San Diego are developing facial recognition technology that can recognize if a person is having trouble understanding an educational lesson – say in mathematics or biology.

As the technology continues to improve, one possible implication is that smart devices and robots will become better and more effective teachers because they will be able to pace lesson plans to an individual student’s ability to comprehend the information which is being presented.

Longer term, it is possible that robots and other smart devices will become more effective teachers than even human teachers because the machines will understand each student’s learning idiosyncrasies and then present material in a manner which is optimized for that individual student’s learning style.

Now, I understand how discomforting the idea that a robot might be a better teacher than your old favorite third grade teacher, Mrs. Hubbard, ever was; but, as that wise American philosopher Yoggi Berra once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2020
Tags: robot, learning, teaching, robotic

Will Scientific Modelling Soon Be Obsolete?

juldrich — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:42:50 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Chris Anderson, the editor of Wired, has written an excellent article entitled “The End of Theory: The Data Deluge Makes Scientific Method Obsolete” in which he convincingly argues that massive amounts of data, in combination with sophisticated algorithms and super powerful computers, offers mankind a whole new way of understanding the world.

Anderson believes that our technological tools have now progressed to the point where the “old way” of doing science – hypothesize, model and test – is becoming obsolete. In its place, a new paradigm is now emerging whereby scientists, researchers and entrepreneurs simply allow statistical algorithms to find patterns where science cannot.

If Anderson is correct – and I believe he very well could be – this will take science in a whole new direction. In short, instead of modeling and waiting to find out if hypotheses are valid the scientific community can instead rely on intelligent algorithms to do the heavy lifting.

Before this vision can be achieved, however, it will require a great many brilliant scientists to unlearn the idea that their “model-based” method of trying to make sense of today’s increasingly complex world is the only way to search for new meaning. (cont.)

Category: Biotechnology
Year: General
Tags: science, scientificmethod, information

The Future of Reading is Near

juldrich — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 17:19:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

Reading. Most of us do it every day and it is so ingrained from such an early age that it is difficult to imagine that there is another way of doing it. Yet, there is.

On Tuesday, I had the opportunity to sit down with Adam Gordon, the vice-president of marketing for Live Ink, to discuss his company’s revolutionary new technology—Live Ink.

Before explaining the technology, however, have you ever wondered why we read the way we do? That is, why do we read words in block text – such as you are doing at this very moment.

I am no historical scholar but I suspect the answer goes back thousands of years and it is partly dependent on writers need to make efficient use of limited resources. First, stone tablets; then papyrus and, ultimately, pulp-based paper.

In much the same way that the QWERTY keyboard has become the de facto way we write on computers – even though it has been demonstrated that there are more efficient and faster methods of typing – the same can be said for how we read. But instead of dealing with one hundred years of established tradition – as in the case of QWERTY keyboard – printed text in block form has been around since Johannes Gutenberg printed off his first bible.

In the near future, however, the resistance to this long-held paradigm will begin to fade. I am not suggesting that printed block text will fade away overnight, but a convergence of technologies has now created an environment in which a different method of how we access the written word has been created. (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2015
Tags: read, reading, liveink, uldrich, jackuldrich

Meet Your Shape-Shifting, Singing Robotic Butler of the Future

juldrich — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 21:43:13 +0000

Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

One of the fun things about being a futurist is trying to understand how the convergence of various emerging technologies might lead to the creation of radically different products in the future.

For instance, consider these two articles which, on their face, appear to have little in common with one another. The first article announced that four robotics companies in Japan are uniting in an effort to create a mainstream market for robots. (For fans of accelerating technological change, please note how they hope to increase by ten-fold the number of domestic robots employed in Japan by 2013). The second article discusses how researchers at the The Franhofer Institute in Europe are making impressive progress in having computers anticipate human needs.

Now, one of the largest markets for robots in Japan is to have them serve the country’s growing – and rapidly aging – population of senior citizens. (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2016
Tags: robot, robotics, jackuldrich, uldrich

When Unusually Rapid Improvement Becomes Usual

juldrich — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:17:01 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

An Opinion/Question Piece

It was reported last week that US life expectancy topped 78 years as a variety of diseases – including heart disease, diabetes and flu – decreased this past year.

More interestingly, life expectancy – which has been increasing about two or three months from year to year – jumped an impressive four months this year. This caused one demographer to note that the increase was “an unusually rapid improvement.”

It was “an usually rapid improvement,” but I’d like to argue that such rapid improvements will become “usual” for the foreseeable future. If one tracks the amazing rate of progress in biotechnology, genomics, stem cell research and nanotechnology; it is hard – barring a devastating calamity that kills thousands or millions of people – to envision how life expectancy will do anything but continue to increase at an accelerating rate.

It seems only prudent, therefore, that we should at least begin preparing for life expectancies in the neighborhood of 100 within the next few decades.

Given the existing pressure on such social programs as Social Security and Medicare, I believe one implication of this “unusually rapid improvement” is that these systems will need to be radically overhauled in order to survive this new demographic reality.

I’d be interested in hearing from other Future Bloggers and readers what you think should be done to modify these systems or whether you think that they will simply collapse under their own weight?

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2020
Tags: uldrich, jackuldrich, acceleration, accelerating, rapid

BMW's Vision of the Future Car

juldrich — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 14:54:00 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

The German automaker BMW, in introducing its new “Light Visionary Model” prototype – which it dubs GINA (Geometry and Functions “N” Adaptions”) – writes this: “The key to affecting the development of tomorrow’s mobility lies in our readiness to challenge what is established and in the ability to present new options.”

I encourage you to watch the short video below. Notice how the doors and hoods no longer open – they fold and zip open – and how the lights do open but they “blink” open (much like the human eye), and I think you’ll agree that BMW’s innovative thinking could be providing us a glimpse into the future of what automobiles might look and feel like.

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2020
Tags: car, bmw, auto, automobile

Filtering Away Cancer

juldrich — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 14:34:59 +0000

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

I have said on numerous occasions that I believe the semiconductor industry offers great hope in addressing the issue of cancer. To this end, I’d encourage you to read this article which discusses how researchers have now developed a new silicon computer chip that can filter out cancer cells according to their unique size.

Now, I don’t expect to such chips will be floating in your body anytime soon, but if you adhere to the “law of accelerating returns” it seems reasonable that by 2020 the technology (or a similarly related technology) will be making great strides in the battle against cancer.

Category: Biotechnology
Year: 2020

Ag Industry Gets Tagged for RFID Implementation

juldrich — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 13:36:56 +0000

by Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve

The government of New Zealand is reportedly planning on tagging all cattle with RFID chips by 2011. The development is a harbinger of things to come for the U.S. agricultural industry. In addition to letting farmers and ranchers track individual cattle by the age, sex and breed, the chips will also allow agri-business to monitor the animal all the way from the farm to your local grocery store.

This tracability will allow consumers to know everything from what anti-biotics the animal was injected with, to whether it was fed with organic feed and raised in a “free-range” environment. The tracibility will also ensure that businesses and governments are quickly able to recall meat in the event of a disease outbreak.

When one further considers how “smart” smart-phones will get in the future, I can easily envision consumers soon using their phones to scan products in the store for information – including genetic information – before they actually make a purchase. (cont.)

Category: Business & Work
Year: 2011
Tags: cows, cattle, rfid, rfidtag, tagging