In a paper released yesterday, AJ.P. Gownder and James L.
McQuivey at Forrester predict that by 2013
Apple will become the hub of the digital home. They support
this contention by imagining
eight future Apple
products including “wall-mountable digital picture frames with
small high-definition screens and speakers that wirelessly play
media”, “an Apple ‘clock radio’ that pipes in music and other media
across a home network”, and “an ‘AppleSound’ universal remote
control, also with a touch-sensitive screen, that lets users browse
their music collections and change the songs playing through their
stereo as they stroll around the house.”
I tend to concur with the rest of the
blogosphere in that this is quite the tame list and that we’ll
probably see significantly more advanced products from the likes of
Apple circa 2013. With dropping component costs (hi-rez screens,
processors, graphics cards, etc.), rising data transfer speeds
(Internet2, a possible
re-allocation of analog TV spectrum) new competition from
proliferating design & interface companies, and the fact that
most of these concepts already in prototype, I believe such
products are more likely to hit mass-markets inside of 3 years
rather than 5 long years away.
In particular I find the “wall-mountable digital picture frames”
prediction a bit weak. If former Xerox PARC
Director John Seely Brown is accurate
in his estimation that Apple CEOSteve Jobs “is
positioning himself to take over completely the living room,” then
by 2013 I see the company developing radically cooler products such
as a slick telepresence
interface that future blogger Dick Pelletier expects
by 2015 or before .
Being that such devices, albeit clunky and expensive versions,
are already being sold by the likes of
Cisco and
VisBox, and that
holographic and projection technologies could eliminate
the expensive screen altogether, it’s unlikely that Steve Jobs and
his crack team of agile researchers and designers haven’t yet
realized the trumping value of rich multi-purpose,
telepresence-enabling interfaces. (cont.)
Humans are only evolved primates-monkeys and apes-with a limited
conceptual vocabulary. We are easily impressed by our technological
accomplishments. In networked opportunity societies, creative and
inventive persons are able to feed off each others’ ideas so that
during periods of economic surplus, the pace of innovation will
take off. In dark ages, totalitarian societies where information is
compartmentalized and otherwise restricted, innovation slows.
The more
sanguine examiners of the tech singularity concept are less
likely to see The Singularity as inevitable. Many developments
within society and government could short-circuit The Singularity,
sending into terminal mode. Imagine a world government ruled by a
Vladimir Putin, Josef Stalin, or Mao. Imagine world science,
academia, media, and governance being taken over by dysfunctional
post-modernist irrationality. Imagine the default human
society-stratification by wealth, knowledge, power, and a profound
inertial resistance to change. (cont.)
It is notoriously difficult to comprehend the compound growth
potential of exponential forces driving innovations in computing,
nanotech, and solar power, but pro futurist and regular future
blogger Jack
Uldrich does a great job explaining this counter-intuitive
phenomenon in his latest book Jump the Curve . Therefore I was
thrilled to come across this short & sweet video synopsis of
exponential potential by the man himself:
By employing comprehensible metaphors and gradually relating
accelerating change to our lives, Jack succinctly and effectively
gets the idea that “the really big change is still ahead of us”
across (no small feat). So if you’re looking for a link to send to
your non Accel-aware buddies, co-workers or relatives, this is
it.
Billions of currently computer-less people will never interface
with a traditional keyboard. They will instead leapfrog to new
touch-screen interfaces on smaller devices such as the Apple
iPhone
or the new One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) design unveiled yesterday.
Sporting dual touch-screen panels connected by a hinge that
allows the device to fold open like a book, the OLPC
XO-2 is scheduled to hit the market in 2010. At an
estimated $75 price point, this will make the device a vastly more
viable competitor of a 3G iPhone than the current OLPC
design.
Though the current OLPC will surely
make some inroads as an educational device in under-developed
countries, as suggested by johnfrink
in
this comment thread it’s reassuring to see that Negroponte and
the OLPC design crew have their ducks in
order when it comes to future viablity and marketability of their
product. The new model will stand a much better chance of grabbing
critical market share vs. the iPhone while also enabling a wider
touch-screen keyboard interface than its main competitor.
That being said, the 3G iPhone will still have the edge when it
comes to telephony, digital photography and portability. Plus I’m
sure that Apple, with their cognizance of rapid product cycles, is
already at work on something similar to the XO-2. (cont.)
Inspired by the hover board flown by Marty McFly in Back to the
Future Part 2, released back in 1989, British company
HoverIt,
Ltd. has designed the world’s first consumer-ready hover chair.
Available fot just under $10,000 U.S. the hover chair works like a
mag-lev train, floating above a set of powerful magnets.
Check out this demo to see for yourself:
In case you’re concerned about the lifespan of the hover chair
there’s no need to worry. The magnets require no re-charge and will
shed just 2% of their power over the first 20 years of use.
While the hover chair of course falls into the novelty category
at this early stage, I can imagine a variety of future applications
for long-lived magnetics that include shock absorption while
walking or gliding, new-fangled fitness training equipment and
ultimately some sort of hover board that works in concert with a
gyroscopically regulated platform such as the one at the heart of
the Segway
human transporter. (cont.)
Back when I lived in LA and worked on reality TV shows I would
often ponder the future of low-cost video production (which is what
enabled both the genre and the explosion of online video content)
and imagine a variety of camera placements that would soon be
enabled by new technologies. I was particularly excited about the
potential for aerial drone cams that could follow characters in new
ways, allow for low cost establishing shots and get to previously
unreachable positions. And so I was psyched to come across this
demo video of a hovering Microdrone camera that allows for
all of the aforementioned:
Of course, it’s been around for about a year (yet another awesome
technology that I’ve missed at inception) and is already being used
for surveillance, exploration, television and more. It currently
runs about $40,000 U.S. but as it drops in cost I expect that
reality TV producers, documentarians, news producers and low-budget
movie producers across the globe will employ it to shoot previously
unthinkable footage. (cont.)
Since the dawn of humanity and the advent of civilized life,
humans have depended on technology. Carving out flint stones,
controlling fire, inventing the wheel, and developing the printing
press have brought us to self-serving gas stations, ATMs and
automated checkouts. Technology has always sparked the engine that drives
civilization forward, and will continue to be essential for
progress into and through the extended future.
Experts predict that by 2015, automation will further evolve
with “smart” radio-frequency identification chips (RFID), which
will identify store items you select and automatically charge them
to your credit card as you walk out the door.
More sophisticated robotics will take us to the next level. By
2025, auto-drive systems installed in cars, trucks and busses will
speak perfect human, and armed with superior intelligence and
senses, along with radar and infra-red abilities, will quickly make
driverless vehicles the safest method of transportation.
Two-legged robotic systems will advance during this same
time-frame. Sony Qrio, Honda Asimo, and Toyota Personal Robot
models will morph into machines that see, hear, move and manipulate
objects at levels roughly equivalent, and in some cases superior,
to humans. (cont.)
Here in glorious 2059, things are a bit different than they were
back in, say, 2008. How so? Well, for one thing, a Starbucks coffee
might have run you three dollars, back then, but now you can be
sitting at home and just think of a Starbucks coffee, and
your nanounit will “build” it for you and then automatically charge
thirty dollars to your account!
Back in the neo “Dark Ages” of old 2008, you could only
dream of having sex with androids, or watch actors
pretending to have sex with androids in movies; heck, even just
five years ago, sex with androids was still mostly frowned upon,
and more painful, really, than pleasurable. But now, in 2059,
everybody’s having sex with androids (even other
androids!), and at worst it only causes a mild pinching…and
degrades the android.
In case you’re wondering, we don’t use the word cool
anymore (“cool” is so 2055). We use awesome now
in most situations where cool would’ve been applied, except when
we’re talking about the temperature: then we say “chilly” or “cold”
or, in certain eco-important situations, “under-warm.” Some
outsiders have recently started using awesome to describe
chilly weather (“It’s awesome out,” they’ll say, or “Man, I wish it
was just a little less awesome today,” or “Yesterday, it was so
awesome I had to wear a jacket!”), but these people are hardly ever
taken seriously, and, in some cases, they’ve even been banned from
having their own talk shows.
Yep, 2059 is pretty fascinating, if you ask me. Oprah is still
alive, and editing her magazine from the confines of a gelatin
cocoon she shares with Dr. Oz and gal-pal, Gayle King. Madonna, and
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Prince,
have just collaborated on a new album entitled Still Mostly
Human (Madonna’s pseudo-butt looks great!). (cont.)
How long would it take for this guy to deliver your pizza?
This rocket man is a trained pilot and engineer, so it doesn’t
look like us laymen will be flying with these wings any time soon,
but I can see a lot of benefits such as first medical response,
amazing camera work, high-speed delivery and of course military
applications. However, I am optimistic that going tandem will be a
near term option.
Google Inc, the uncontested leader in Internet services
announced it has shipped its 5 millionth “free” computer, only 14
months after starting up the “Free Computer Program”. The Google
Product Manager, Pierre Lindsely, stated he is overwhelmed by the
success of his project and they are trying very hard to keep up
with demand.
People now have to wait more than three weeks to get their
“G-Tops”, as they have become known as, instead of the three days
when the program started. Pierre Lindsely: “People will wait for
anything if it’s free, so I am not worried that this will impact
the enthusiasm for this product. We are attracting some new
suppliers and we will see the waiting time decrease gradually.” The
free Google computers come with a free broadband connection that
connects only to Google WI-FI hubs (aka as G-Spots). (cont.)
Imagine a world with billions of desktop-size, nonpolluting,
cheap machines that can manufacture almost anything – clothing,
furniture, electronics, cars, even food. Today, such devices do not
exist, but in the future, a small Star Trek-like replicator called
a “personal nanofactory” (PN) will sit on your kitchen counter
enabling you to create nearly anything your heart desires at little
or no cost.
These incredible machines receive raw atoms from supplied
chemicals or from something as inexpensive as dirt, air or water.
Then, using Internet-delivered software, they instruct atoms to
assemble into the final product; a sweater, refrigerator, health
medicine, tonight’s dinner; even a duplicate PN.
In their latest book, Revolutionary Wealth, Alvin and Heidi
Toffler argue convincingly that we are on the verge of a
post-scarcity world that will slash poverty and “unlock countless
opportunities and new life trajectories”.
Futurist consultant Steve Burgess agrees. In his on-line essay,
The
(Needed) New Economics of Abundance, Burgess predicts that
nanotechnology, especially PNs, could launch an unprecedented era
of abundance for all people.
The World Bank estimates that some 1.1 billion humans survive on
the equivalent of $1 per day; 11% of the global population is well
off, 11%, middle income, and 78%, poor. Experts believe advanced
nanotech could bring clean water, reliable energy, and quality
housing to every third-world country, and PNs could provide all the
world’s poor with an affluent healthy lifestyle similar to that
enjoyed in developed countries. (cont.)
It was the summer of 2022 and I was invited to go
rock-climbing with some friends. I had never attempted this
exercise before, so naturally, I was concerned.
My friends simply dismissed my unease, saying “rock-climbing is
not what it used to be”.
They were right.
Body line pressurized suits have been in use since 2012; first
in NASA spacewalks and then were quickly
introduced to the public. At first they were simply pressurized and
used as a space suit based wrap. It increased mobility and
decreased its size. Since then electronic fibers were introduced to
manipulate the structure of the “smart” fabric thus magnifying the
strength of movement while wearing the suit. Making the user of it,
astoundingly stronger. I knew that hours in the gym would not be
needed for what would be a grueling rock-climbing trip, because my
hire suit enhanced my strength five fold. The trip turned out to be
great, getting to the top was definitely worth the now-easy trip.
Next month we will go kite surfing, I think I might need hire the
suit again.
Technology has always sparked the engine that drives
civilization forward, and will continue to be essential for
progress into and through the extended future.
It was the summer of 2022 and I was invited to go
rock-climbing with some friends. I had never attempted this
exercise before, so naturally, I was concerned.