Melanie Swan's Predictions for the Next 10 Years
March 11 2008 / by Marisa Vitols
Category: Technology Year: General Rating: 9
A hedge fund manager with expertise in financial markets,
trends, and a variety of futurist topics, it’s safe to say that
Melanie Swan has a good sense of what’s coming next. In a recent
in-depth MemeBox interview, Swan laid out a list of specific
predictions for the next year, next five years, and next decade. If
you’re looking to strengthen your future simulation, this timeline
covers some of the key product releases, technologies, and theories
that every futurist should consider.
MV: What are some of the powerful new technologies or disruptive events that you expect to see over the next year, by Dec 31, 2008?
MS:
- 3d cameras
- Geo-tagged online connected objects
- Early versions of neuroheadsets for gaming
- Increased adoption of personal genomics services
- Growth in data visualization for enterprise and science in
virtual worlds
- Telemedicine pilots
- Larger computer and television monitors (substantial increase in
total square feet of screens in 2008 vs. 2007)
- Progress in virtual world interoperability and increased
migration to OpenSim
MV: What powerful new technologies or disruptive events that you expect to see over the next 5 years, by 2013?
MS:
- Proof of the existence or non-existence of the Higgs
boson
- Google continues to reinvigorate and contribute to the artificial
intelligence field
- At least one SARS-type virus or plague
has reached a hundred people
- Mediatronic walls available to high-end customers
- Live data streamed into virtual worlds and represented visually
is routine
- Augmented reality overlay applications available via mobile
phone
- Smart home sensor networks
- Enterprise 3d data visualization
- Virtual worlds start to become an important successor platform to
the web for eCommerce
- More heterogeneous passenger vehicles on the road: diesel,
hybrid, etc.
- At least one public company has announced their quarterly
earnings simultaneously in a virtual world
MV: What are some of the powerful new technologies or disruptive events that you expect to see over the next 10 years, by 2018?
MS:
- Full rat brain modeled by IBM
Blue Brain supercomputing project or others
- Attempted bio-terrorism attacks
- Full human genome scans are available for $1,000 or less
- Large populations of the industrialized world have had their
genome partially scanned
- Initial versions of human proteome modeled/sequenced, drug
discovery revolves around proteomics in addition to genomics
- Some form of universal socialized healthcare exists in the
US
- India, China, Singapore, Dubai, etc. have become hotbeds for
specific health/drug/technology development
- There is serious consideration of splitting China into multiple
administrative parts
- A few pilot PRT (personal rapid transit) projects have been
launched
- Some form of avatar-based navigation for mobile phone eCommerce
exists
Comment Thread (3 Responses)
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This is very insightful. In particular, I find interesting the 2013 predictions for mobile phone augmented reality, virtual commerce worlds, and enterprise 3D visualization – all of which I buy into 100%. I think the application of such “metaverse” technologies in that time frame will truly start to open people’s eyes to acceleration.
re: the 2018 China prediction. Demographers are forecasting a big rift in China, for sure, so that seems like a reasonable possibility, unless new economic forces moot the need to split into new still-big sovereign chunks. I wonder if a broader bottom-up micro-regional pressure/phenomenon might not change the way we look at nation states by then (but that’s probably a bit too early, unless we see a massive capital explosion).
Posted by: Alvis Brigis March 11, 2008
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“India, China, Singapore, Dubai, etc”—does ‘etc’ include Israel, I wonder? Perhaps it’s always been this way, but they seem to be coming out with a slew of amazing nanotech, biotech and computing/AI discoveries lately.
Posted by: Fishka March 11, 2008
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Of all her predictions, I think “attempted bio-terrorism attack” is the most interesting – not to mention, of course, one of the more troubling – because if the attack is severe enough it could alter how quickly or slowly some of the other predictions take place.
Posted by: juldrich June 17, 2008
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