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Avatars will help us navigate tomorrow's electronic maze

March 18 2008 / by futuretalk
Category: Communication   Year: General   Rating: 19 Hot

By Dick Pelletier

Say goodbye to TV remote controls and the computer mouse and keyboard. By as early as 2010 to 2015, a computerized image of your choice displayed on wall-size screens throughout the house will be available to hear your commands and speak to you in perfect human voice.

Selecting TV programs will be easy. Turn on any display screen in the house and your personal avatar appears. “Hi Dick, what can I do for you?” “I want to see Sunday’s ‘Desperate Housewives’.” “Here it is Dick, and I won’t reveal the ending, enjoy.”

Avatars will also interface with PCs, which will signal the end for most of our mouse-clicking and typing. Simply say, “Computer, display last night’s email; good, reply to my sister, tell her Friday’s OK; and invite the family to my house next Saturday for dinner; now ring David in Japan on Skype.”

Most people think that interactive systems like this are a long ways off, but two trends are quickening the pace. Improved speech-recognition and interactive voice-response systems now mimic normal-spoken language more accurately – and today’s computer graphics can create 3-D avatars with an uncanny “real” look.

Honda, with help from IBM, will soon introduce an incredibly efficient speech-recognition system that allows drivers to get voice navigation guidance without having to manually punch in information or take their eyes off the road.

And with the advent of multi-core CPU architectures from Intel and Advanced Micro Devices, Microsoft, experts say, could reserve entire cores in future operating systems exclusively to voice technologies providing it with enough power to become the next decade’s “killer app” for PCs.

Nvidia’s Andrew Humbar believes his company will soon create 3-D avatars made from 150,000 programmable triangles that can generate realistic body images and facial expressions, indiscernible from real people.

Although we have a way to go before avatars become totally lifelike, they are working their way into our lives. Today you can represent yourself with an avatar attached to emails and blogs. And in the future, experts predict these clever images will not only look and act like real people, but in some cases, they may even outperform us.

At MIT’s McGovern Institute for Brain Research, scientists have developed an artificial intelligence program that mimics the human brain in recognizing street scenes. Forward-thinkers hope this technology will one day enable avatars to achieve true human logic.

These wonder creations are popping up everywhere. In Japan, Yuki Terai thrills as a virtual rock star and is a national idol, Ananova gained notoriety reporting weather, and futurist Ray Kurzweil created Ramona, an alter-ego that hosts his web site and has performed live on stage.

In the next decade, avatars will help us buy and sell online, become better educated, receive medical help, and talk with distant friends. And real-life 3-D images on wall-size displays will make us feel that we are in the same room with these amazing lifelike characters.

Finally, as science fiction so often precedes real science, Titanic Director James Cameron’s next film, Avatar, scheduled for summer 2009 release, uses innovative graphics that could provide a glimpse of how tomorrow’s avatars may appear, in what promises to be a most “magical future” time.

Who would you like your Avatar to resemble?

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Comment Thread (4 Responses)

  1. Cool post DP. re: avatars and voice recognition. I think that VoR will be very important in the development of avatars, but that it’s likely to be augmented by haptic (think typing or gesturing into the air) / 3D camera, brain-computer and eyeball/facial recognition interfaces. A combo of words, gestures and will/thought may make it even easier to specify and clarify your exact bidding. If I want my avatar to go buy me an emerald green suit for St. Patty’s day, I’ll be able to quickly assemble my desired outcome by gesturing to pull up my biometrics, focusing until I arrive at the exact color I desire, then asking it to go fetch. And that will be a wonderful day.

    Another wonderful day will be the theatrical release date of Cameron’s Avatar. The premise of the movie + Cameron’s abilities are bound to result in perhaps the blockbuster of 2009. I cannot wait to see that and watch my Hollywood Stock Exchange account balloon thanks to all of Avatar stock I bought a few years ago. :) Gotta bet on sci-fi w/ real-world repercussions.

    re: the timeline for avatars. If you haven’t already, you really must check out Second Life. It’s free, it’s a bit boring if you don’t know what cool events or lectures to attend, and it’s the ultimate primer to the forthcoming metaverse. Best of all, it lets easily build avatars and clothe/outfit them with hundreds of thousands of user genrated objects. Check out my avatar, Blunderful Bunderfeld, who’s been around since the early days of SL and through the fun SL Future Salon years:

    This form has served me well and will probably influence any future hyper-realistic avatars that I will generate. At the very least Blunderful will serve as a revered patriarch seated at my avatar family dinner parties (just got an eerie flash-back to the designed creations at the creature designer’s house in Blade Runner, freaky).

    Posted by: Alvis   March 17, 2008
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  2. Great info Alvis. I’ll have to check out Second Life.

    Avatars will begin to get real personal when holographic technology matures, 2015-2020. These crafty creatures will be able to hop off the screen and accompany us around the room – real-life style.

    Then with nanobots whizzing around our neurons, circa 2025, the reality effect will be complete. At this time, they will, for all purposes, become as real as a soul mate.

    This future is about to truly become “magical.”

    Posted by: futuretalk   March 17, 2008
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  3. I hope the avatar around the house sound like Computer from Star Trek. Wonder what she’d look like.

    Posted by: Zeppelin   March 19, 2008
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  4. I work at a University in IT, looking at Emerging Technology and how the technology just over the horizon and bleeding edge technology “might” fit into faculty and student usage and interaction. One of the things I have noticed over the years is the different interactions students have with one professor or another due to different teacher-student learning-teaching styles. Here is where what I call the Docent Avatar of the future could change the way we teach and learn. When children start school at an early age they would be tested to determine their inborn or native learning style/preferences. By this I mean whether they are more apt to learn by listening, seeing, or doing and combinations thereof. The student would be paired with an AI Docent Avatar designed to give (or present) educational information keyed to the particular learners stle of learning. Now that CPU’s are getting faster, smaller, ubiquitous internet access around the corner, terabit on a chip storage, better voice recognition/context SW is being produced. The need for I/O via keyboard and monitor will fall by the wayside to be replaced with HUD glasses or LED to retina visual displays. The student will see and/or hear the Docent wherever and whenever needed. Your companion will have all the answers to anything you need to know and just in time. We could all become lifetime learners in the classroom and out of the classroom.

    Posted by: pwalde   March 20, 2008
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