February 29 2008 / by memebox
Category: Space Year: General Rating: 6
This interview was conducted by Venessa Posavec
1/10/08
V: What do you do and how is that related to the future?
Mac: I’ve been blogging about futuristic subjects for five
years. I’m interested in how seemingly disparate trends have a way
of merging—art, biotech, transportation, “green” technologies, and
others. I’ve also written about “paranormal” subjects. My Mars
book, for instance, takes on a lot of topics that I consider
essentially futurist, although they’re seldom encountered outside
of the paranormal community.
V: What, in your words, is a futurist?
Mac: A futurist is someone who can take a look at a stripmall
and experience instinctual fear. A futurist’s job is to live in the
future, to experience it. That can sometimes make the present a
lonely place, but it can also make it exhilarating. Of all the
would-be shamans of our time, I think novelist William Gibson
understands this most of all.
V: What is a transhumanist?
Mac: Transhumanists view aging as a terminal illness—and who can
blame them? From a design perspective, the human frame is woefully
lacking and in need of some serious revision. Fortunately we’re
rapidly entering an era of genetic engineering. We’re on the cusp
of being able to design ourselves in some profoundly meaningful
ways.
Needless to say, this sort of power has huge implications for
just about every social institution you can imagine, so a big part
of transhumanism’s job is envisioning how the human race might
change to accommodate future advances.
V: What do you think are some of the most likely
medical/technological advances that we’ll see that will bring us
that much closer to transhumanism? What time frame?
Mac: Aging is the big one. If we can turn off aging a lot of our
other biomedical concerns will begin to look almost petty. Of
course, we’ll continue to augment ourselves regardless of how long
we live, but I can easily see “negligible senescence” achieved
within forty years. Quite possibly less.
V: Can you give us a general landscape of what you think the
future will look like?
Mac: The short-term doesn’t look terribly promising. To begin
with, we’re up against a disintegrating biosphere and a ravaged
global climate. If we can beat that, things start looking more
hopeful. We’re already seeing some exciting new thinking about
democratized space travel, for example: this could lead to a
large-scale colonization of space and, ultimately, the effective
end of the nation-state.
As William Burroughs said, “we’re here to go.” I’d personally
like to see humanity become a spacefaring species.
V: What is the singularity?
Mac: At some point, presumably in the 21st century,
technological growth will accelerate to the point that we might
find ourselves dealing with a form of alien intelligence. At least
that’s the operative wisdom among the hard-core crowd.
V: When do you think the singularity will occur?
Mac: It might not occur at all. That’s the truly disturbing
possibility.
V: When do you think we’ll create the first AI?
Mac: That depends on your definition of “AI.” In some respects
we already have it, or at least a limited form of it. Will we
achieve sentient machines? Maybe, although I’m inclined to think of
that as a relatively long-term prospect. Then again, maybe I’m in
for a surprise.
V: Where are all the extra terrestrials?
Mac: It’s politically fashionable to assume we’re not being
visited and that the only way we can hope to make contact is
through transmitting signals. Of course, that’s assuming they’re
out there manning their radio telescopes and not uploaded into
hedonistic virtual realities or choking on their own pollution.
On the other hand, there’s evidence to suggest some form of
extraterrestrial presence here right now. So we might not be as
alone as it seems.
V: What is some of your favorite future fiction?
Mac: Anything by J.G. Ballard, Philip K. Dick, William Gibson
and Bruce Sterling. More recently I’ve discovered really good stuff
by Alastair Reynolds, Jack Womack and Charles Stross. Viva
cyberpunk!
V: Overall Future: What trends are you aware of that people
should be looking at?
Mac: Species dieback, certainly. Also megascale geo-engineering
“quick fixes” for global warming. Both of these subjects are too
often ignored for sounding alarmist; it’s always easier to gawk at
our cellphones.
V: What are some of the big opportunities that the future holds
(more or less specific)?
Mac: Mars exploration. We can go there in the near-future if we
want it bad enough. And we should want it bad
enough. I’m also excited at the prospect of peering at extrasolar
planets and deducing the presence of life.
V: As we move forward in time, what are some potential
drawbacks/risks?
Mac: Pandemics, obviously. Nuclear war, water shortages,
drowning coastal cities . . . Don’t get me started!
V: List some specific predictions for the year 2008.
Mac: We’ll continue to find exoplanets. And I suspect
NASA will announce new and better
evidence of present life on Mars.
V: 2008: What disruptive events don’t people see coming?
Mac: Not to sound morbid, but it’s only a matter of time until
the next Katrina.
V: Specific predictions for next 5 years, thru 2012.
Mac: I’ll go out on a limb with this one. I predict we’ll find
“smoking gun” evidence for life on Mars, discover at least one
extrasolar biosphere, and possibly even detect some EM chatter from
an ET civilization.
V: Specific or general predictions for next 10 years, thru end
of 2017.
Mac: We’ll have created androids that can pass for the real
thing, if only briefly. We’ll probably be growing cloned organs in
vats. The US will have a base on the Moon and the Chinese will be
nipping at our heels. The mean global temperature will be hottest
on record. Large chance of regional nuclear conflicts. Duck and
cover, kids. It’s about to get really weird.
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