By Dick Pelletier
Imagine a world with billions of desktop-size, nonpolluting,
cheap machines that can manufacture almost anything – clothing,
furniture, electronics, cars, even food. Today, such devices do not
exist, but in the future, a small Star Trek-like replicator called
a “personal nanofactory” (PN) will sit on your kitchen counter
enabling you to create nearly anything your heart desires at little
or no cost. 
These incredible machines receive raw atoms from supplied
chemicals or from something as inexpensive as dirt, air or water.
Then, using Internet-delivered software, they instruct atoms to
assemble into the final product; a sweater, refrigerator, health
medicine, tonight’s dinner; even a duplicate PN.
In their latest book, Revolutionary Wealth, Alvin and Heidi
Toffler argue convincingly that we are on the verge of a
post-scarcity world that will slash poverty and “unlock countless
opportunities and new life trajectories”.
Futurist consultant Steve Burgess agrees. In his on-line essay,
The
(Needed) New Economics of Abundance, Burgess predicts that
nanotechnology, especially PNs, could launch an unprecedented era
of abundance for all people.
The World Bank estimates that some 1.1 billion humans survive on
the equivalent of $1 per day; 11% of the global population is well
off, 11%, middle income, and 78%, poor. Experts believe advanced
nanotech could bring clean water, reliable energy, and quality
housing to every third-world country, and PNs could provide all the
world’s poor with an affluent healthy lifestyle similar to that
enjoyed in developed countries. (cont.)
In a recent article posted on KurzweilAI.net, researcher Robert
Freitas suggests that nanotech will bring about major disruptions
in the economy. Automated systems and “robotic slaves cheaply
manufactured by PNs will allow humans to become pure consumers with
no need to produce products or provide services”. This could reduce
the value of human labor to zero.
However, in this future nano-world, many forward-thinkers
believe there will be little need for money. Technologies will
eventually eliminate all living costs. Public projects like roads
and other government activities could also slash expenses by
utilizing more automation procedures.
In addition, rapid, flexible manufacturing will allow swift
development of new inventions, spurring innovation, creating
further benefits. As people begin to “replicate” items, some will
create designs that produce a better product, which others will
copy, making new products available at faster rates than in today’s
commerce-driven market.
Positive futurists believe that nanotech could also eliminate
some of the reasons nations go to war. Many conflicts arise from a
fear of losing access to resources such as oil. Nano-solar systems
will provide low-cost methods of harnessing solar energy creating a
viable alternative to fossil fuels. Countries enjoying the benefits
of advanced nanotech will be less likely to turn hostile.
General-purpose molecular manufacturing with PNs appears to be
inevitable. It could become reality as early as 2020, and certainly
should happen by 2025. When it arrives, it will come quickly. To
prepare for the coming development of molecular manufacturing
technology, futurists say we must start planning for it today.
Clearly, the road to personal nanofactories winds around unknown
turns. However, strong commerce and government support will insure
its arrival. This “magical future” promises reduced conflicts
between nations, optimum health and undreamed of personal wealth
for everyone on Earth.
Comments welcome.
Comment Thread ()
