May 19 2008 / by futuretalk
Category: Technology Year: General Rating: 12 Hot
By Dick Pelletier
Since the dawn of humanity and the advent of civilized life,
humans have depended on technology. Carving out flint stones,
controlling fire, inventing the wheel, and developing the printing
press have brought us to self-serving gas stations, ATMs and
automated checkouts. 
Technology has always sparked the engine that drives
civilization forward, and will continue to be essential for
progress into and through the extended future.
Experts predict that by 2015, automation will further evolve
with “smart” radio-frequency identification chips (RFID), which
will identify store items you select and automatically charge them
to your credit card as you walk out the door.
More sophisticated robotics will take us to the next level. By
2025, auto-drive systems installed in cars, trucks and busses will
speak perfect human, and armed with superior intelligence and
senses, along with radar and infra-red abilities, will quickly make
driverless vehicles the safest method of transportation.
Two-legged robotic systems will advance during this same
time-frame. Sony Qrio, Honda Asimo, and Toyota Personal Robot
models will morph into machines that see, hear, move and manipulate
objects at levels roughly equivalent, and in some cases superior,
to humans. (cont.)
These robots will not “think” exactly like us, but by
programming them with human-like memory-prediction systems
described by acclaimed science writer Jeff Hawkins in his book,
On
Intelligence, they will develop personalities and act with
intelligence, grace, and precision.
By 2030, according to Marshal Brain, of howstuffworks.com, these
creatures will become commonplace, performing jobs everywhere. They
will cook, clean, and take orders in restaurants; pour concrete and
hang drywall in construction; move luggage, sell tickets, even fly
planes at airports; care for patients and prepare food at
hospitals. Malls, theaters, trucking companies, and the U.S. Post
Office will all profit with these intelligent ‘bots.
The 2000 Census Bureau statistics show 114 million employees
working. The following data reveals approximate job losses expected
from future automation. Construction industry: 6 million;
manufacturing: 16 million; transportation: 3 million; retail: 15
million; and hospitality: 10 million. This totals 50 million jobs –
nearly half of today’s employees. What will happen to these
displaced workers?
Experts see two dynamic solutions: First, economists believe
when faced with losing jobs, workers will develop skills in another
industry. According to washingtontechnology.com, information
technology (IT) companies are in the midst of incredible growth,
experiencing a huge need for more human employees. This trend is
expected to last several decades.
Second, many futurists believe that nanotech; with its promise
of self-replicating devices by mid-2020s, will provide inexpensive
food and household items; which will reduce living costs, making
part-time employment sufficient for many families.
Will this “magical future” happen? If we simply extrapolate on
Moore’s Law, doubling intelligence in these silicon marvels every
18 months without increasing their price, by mid-2020s, these
super-intelligent robots will cost about the same ($10,000) as
today’s clumsy creatures. At that price, in 2025 dollars, they will
be affordable and could find their way into nearly every home.
Tomorrow’s amazing robots will help with household chores and
perform a variety of other services – some that could even generate
additional family income. We will quickly wonder how we ever got
along without them.
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