May 21 2008 / by juldrich
Category: Business & Work Year: General Rating: 6 Hot
By Jack Uldrich 
Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net
The future is unknowable. There are far too many variables for
even the most foresighted individual or powerful supercomputer to
accurately forecast what tomorrow – let alone next year or the next
decade – will look like with precision. Nevertheless, this fact
neither discounts the importance of forecasting, nor does it
diminish the work that those individuals (myself included) try to
do in discerning what the future might hold in store.
I would, however, like to submit that anyone inclined toward
thinking about the future should be open to the idea of unlearning,
which I define as “the unique skill of jettisoning old knowledge in
order to accomodate newer and more relevant information.”
A case in point is this new
study suggesting that global warming may not be worsening
hurricanes. Now, before anyone gets too not and bothered by the
real or perceived flaws in the study’s methodology, I’d like to
make clear that it is not my contention that this study is the
final word on the topic. Rather, I simply want to highlight it as
an example of how continued advances in the development of better
and more sophisticated supercomputers, algorithms and ubiqitous
sensors are likely to lead to more situations in the future where
scientists and researchers produce results that question and
challenge conventional wisdom. (To this point, since Hurricane
Katrina ripped through New Orleans many people have come to believe
that there is a direct connection between global climate change and
the frequency and severity of hurricanes; and this belief, in turn,
has lead them to predict that more hurricanes are in our future.)
(cont.)
The job of forecasters and futurists, however, is to be
receptive to contradictory information—especially when it
challenges fundamental beliefs or assumptions about the future.
History is littered with examples of yesterday’s dogma being
mocked and ridiculed by the next generation. There is no reason to
think that many of our most cherished beliefs won’t be similarly
mocked and ridiculed in the future.
One way to avoid this fate is to have the courage to “unlearn”
things whenever new and compelling information becomes
available.
Interested in other posts on the topic of unlearning? Check
out these articles:
Unlearning the Tipping
Point
Learn to Ask New
Questions
Does the
Pharmaceutical Industry Need to Unlearn?
Is the
Health Care Industry prepared to Unlearn?
Learning to Unlearn:
Case Study #1
Examples of
Unexponential Thinking
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