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When Unusually Rapid Improvement Becomes Usual

June 17 2008 / by juldrich
Category: Business & Work   Year: 2020   Rating: 4 Hot

By Jack Uldrich

An Opinion/Question Piece

It was reported last week that US life expectancy topped 78 years as a variety of diseases – including heart disease, diabetes and flu – decreased this past year.

More interestingly, life expectancy – which has been increasing about two or three months from year to year – jumped an impressive four months this year. This caused one demographer to note that the increase was “an unusually rapid improvement.”

It was “an usually rapid improvement,” but I’d like to argue that such rapid improvements will become “usual” for the foreseeable future. If one tracks the amazing rate of progress in biotechnology, genomics, stem cell research and nanotechnology; it is hard – barring a devastating calamity that kills thousands or millions of people – to envision how life expectancy will do anything but continue to increase at an accelerating rate.

It seems only prudent, therefore, that we should at least begin preparing for life expectancies in the neighborhood of 100 within the next few decades.

Given the existing pressure on such social programs as Social Security and Medicare, I believe one implication of this “unusually rapid improvement” is that these systems will need to be radically overhauled in order to survive this new demographic reality.

I’d be interested in hearing from other Future Bloggers and readers what you think should be done to modify these systems or whether you think that they will simply collapse under their own weight?

Comment Thread (2 Responses)

  1. You are right Social Security is already going to be huge burden to society even if life expectancy does not change much. I think two things have to happen.

    1. Social Security should not be viewed as a retirement plan. It should be provided only to people who absolutely need it and it should cover only some basic necessities.

    2. Everybody has to be educated about importance of saving/investing to take care of his own retirement WITHOUT making any assumptions of his life expectancy.

    So if somebody does not want to think of his/her future and chooses to buy dozens of fancy shoes or designer bags every year instead of saving – fine, but be prepared to live on $500/month after retirement. If you did save, but it was enough only for 20 years – sorry, no fancy vacations after that, here are your $500/month.

    Posted by: johnfrink   June 17, 2008
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  2. I agree with johnfrink re: social security. It’s not safe to assume that it will pay for our retirement. The assumptions underlying the whole system (govt, managers, recipients) are totally linear.

    Our govt will soon come to the realization that both SS and Medicare are fundamentally screwed. If growth begins to take off then perhaps we’ll be able to up taxes and increase revenue, thus saving these old-school systems. But it seems more likely that new forms of money management and life planning will need to emerge in the private sector, then perhaps be brought over to replace the broken systems int he public sector.

    Posted by: Alvis Brigis   June 18, 2008
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