Indefinite lifespan is within our grasp, scientists say

June 26 2008 / by futuretalk
Category: Health & Medicine   Year: General   Rating: 10 Hot

By Dick Pelletier

Scientist and entrepreneur Ray Kurzweil claims that biotech and nanotech advances expected over the next two decades will be sufficient for humanity to slow down aging and make a realistic stab at ending death.

Kurzweil should not be taken lightly. Called “the ultimate thinking machine” by Forbes magazine, his enthusiastic fans range from Bill Gates to Bill Clinton, and a recent Time magazine article compared him with the genius of Thomas Edison.

Kurzweil believes that unraveling the human genome has enabled researchers to begin development of powerful technologies that promise to re-grow cells, tissues, and organs; reverse aging; correct bad genes; and build nanobots the size of blood cells that will roam through our bodies keeping us forever young and healthy.

In his bestselling book, Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever, co-authored with Terry Grossman, M.D., Kurzweil says, “Whereas some of my contemporaries may be satisfied to embrace aging gracefully as part of the cycle of life; that is not my view. It may be ‘natural’, but I don’t see anything positive in losing my mental agility, sensory acuity, physical limberness, sexual desire, or any other human ability”.

In a recent interview with CNN’s Fredricka Whitfield, Kurzweil revealed steps outlined in his book that bridge the gulf between today, when medical help focuses more on treating symptoms than cures; and tomorrow, when biotech and nanotech revolutions promise so many miracles. Kurzweil divides these steps, which he says anyone can take, into three bridges. (cont.)

Bridge One begins now by adopting a powerful nutrient menu specifically designed to meet each individual’s genetic requirements; and it also includes eating less animal fats, carbohydrates, and high-glycemic-load foods; plus adding more physical and mental activities to our routine.

Bridge Two relies on biotech advances expected between 2010 and 2020, when stem cell and gene therapies will be available to replace defective tissues and organs, bringing an end to most diseases and aging.

Bridge Three takes us into the amazing 2020s, when nanotech, robot, and artificial intelligence systems will provide cell-repair mechanisms, human-machine interfaces, and vastly improved minds. By 2030, the writers claim, adults, regardless of their age, could be living in a powerful, youthful body enjoying great health and free from most unwanted deaths.

Psychologist Karim Hajee would add positive thinking to the mix. “Some refer to this as mind power”; he says; “others call it spiritual power; but most call it the power of our subconscious mind”. Believe in this positive future; know that you can improve your health and survive to become part of it – and you will.

Cambridge University researcher Aubrey de Grey believes that by 2020, science advances will add more than a year to human life expectancy every year. This, he claims, is evidence that many of us alive today could live for 200 years or more.

Kurzweil and Grossman carry this further; they point out that what humans have always dreamed of – the promise of living an indefinite lifespan – could soon become reality. Follow the principles laid forth in their bridges and you too, along with many of your loved ones and friends, might journey into our “magical future”, and all the way through the 21st century – and beyond.

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Comment Thread (14 Responses)

1. “Cambridge University researcher Aubrey de Grey believes that by 2020…”

   He doesn’t. Don’t know where you got THAT one from FT. He says that life expectancy will be something like 5,000 by 2100. He’s another one who thinks Kurzweil’s estimates are overly optimistic and said it will certainly take centuries to achieve true immortality. I have to concur.

   Nobody BUT Kurzweil believes in Kurzweil’s poppycock.

   Posted by: adbatstone80   June 26, 2008
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2. There are probably as many versions of how life extension technologies will unfold as there are people who discuss this fascinating subject.

   I believe that science and technology advances in the 2010s, 2020s, and 2030s will be sufficient to eliminate all, or at least most unwanted deaths. Many do not agree with this optimism, but I am convinced that this is how the future will unfold.

   This piece focuses on the Kurzweil and Grossman book that offers a way for many alive today to keep their bodies patched up and survive into this future time.

   Of the six living generations in America – WWII born 1932 or before; Swing, 1933-1945; ‘Boomers, 1946-1964; Gen X, 1965-1976; Millennials, 1977-1994; and Z, 1995-2009 – only the first three have a strong interest in extending health and lifespan; the others do not yet feel the pressures of aging.

   Will an indefinite lifespan become possible for many alive today? This writer believes that it will. Comments welcome.

   Posted by: futuretalk   June 26, 2008
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3. FYI – The Methuselah Foundation is sponsoring a conference this Saturday and Sunday, June 28, 29 at UCLA, to discuss Aging 2008: The Disease, the Cure, and the Implications.

   Speakers at this meeting will argue that the near-term consequences of intense research into regenerative medicine could be the development of therapies that extend healthy human life; even if the therapies are applied to older adults.

   Although I will not be attending this get-together, I will receive transcripts and will report on much of the happenings in future articles.

   Posted by: futuretalk   June 26, 2008
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4. futuretalk said: “Cambridge University researcher Aubrey de Grey believes that by 2020, science advances will add more than a year to human life expectancy every year.”

   adbatstone said: “He says that life expectancy will be something like 5,000 by 2100.”

   I don’t see any inconsistencies here. What was your point?

   Posted by: gremlinn   June 27, 2008
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5. Aubrey means the average life expectancy for those born in 2100 will be 5,000 years. Right now it is 78 in most developed countries, and will remain that way for several decades.

   Here’s how I see it, due to dead-set evidence, not blind Kurzweilian fantasies.

   Born before 2010: Last Mortal Generation. Born between 2011-2075: Life expectancy 100-200. Born after 2076: First immortal generation.

   Posted by: adbatstone80   June 27, 2008
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6. Aubrey de Grey believes, that many of those who live to their thousands have already been born. Kurzweil believes that machines will surpass human intelligence by the end of the first third of this century. This event is often referred to as the singularity. There are many explanations, but this one is from wikipedia: “The technological singularity is a theoretical point in the future of unprecedented technological progress, caused in part by the ability of machines to improve themselves using artificial intelligence.”

   In this case it sounds very logical, that after machines surpass human intelligence, they will start improving over themselves; thus improving generation by generation. By the year after the technological singularity is due to dawn, it could be run by over 500 super computers around the world. Granted, a machine with access to it’s own source code has limitless advantages over us biological humans. It would be much more adaptable, and it could be connected to the number crunching abilities of quantum computers. It could be also connected to the exponentially growing database of human knowledge; the web.

   There is a project called “Blue Brain”, it is a collaboration between IBM and Henry Markram’s Brain and Mind Institute at the École Polytechnique (EPFL) in Lausanne, Switzerland. It aims to simulate the human brain on molecular level, it’s also a study of the structure of the human brain. It has already provided result in a way: In December 2006 they managed to create a simulation of a rat neocortical column.

   This is some proof that the industrial business world is interested in conquering the biological problems of the human body.

   Posted by: JHE   June 27, 2008
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7. Very well said, JHE; I would add one more event that I believe will take place shortly before the time when AI-strengthened machines begin to outthink humans: technologies of the day will make possible artificial “nano-neurons” in our brains allowing humans to interface with their silicon creations to share their vast knowledge.

   And in the following decade or two, the ability to connect our brains directly with our artificial intelligence will lead to replacing more of our biology, eventually converting our bodies into powerful non-destructible non-biological “housing units” immune from unwanted death.

   I know this sounds wild today, but the technologies are in place to produce this amazing future. By mid-century, most people alive today could be enjoying an indefinite lifespan without fear of sickness, aging, or death.

   Posted by: futuretalk   June 27, 2008
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8. “By mid-century, most people alive today could be enjoying an indefinite lifespan without fear of sickness, aging, or death.”

   This has got to be some sort of joke, right?! This claim is so damn optimistic to the point of silliness, it deserves its own 20 second laugh track.

   The scientific “know-it-alls” may have laughed out loud at Einstein, but they also laughed at Bozo the Clown.

   Posted by: adbatstone80   June 28, 2008
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9. Adbatstone80, if you would back your witty remarks with facts and statistics that could disprove the future you attack, it would make it easier to respond to your posts.

   The manner in which you offer your opinions makes you sound like some kind of a troll, and I doubt very much that is your goal.

   If you think my optimistic view of the future, which was extending the technologies discussed by JHE in the previous post, is incorrect; why not point out which technologies you think will advance at slower speeds or maybe not advance at all. This way we can at least discuss the technologies.

   This is just my opinion. Comments welcome.

   Posted by: futuretalk   June 28, 2008
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10. Well, one technology that I don’t think will lead to anything major is nanotechnology. Richard Jones has successfully refuted the feasibility of blood-cell-sized nanobots in his piece “Rupturing the Nanotech Rapture” in the June edition of IEEE Spectrum.

    Biotechnology will advance at such a sluggish pace that any major advances this century still won’t crack the brutal complexity of the human body and brain. Biologists are coming up against meaner and nastier obstacles on a daily basis.

    Posted by: adbatstone80   June 29, 2008
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11. The idea that humans will once conquer death seems inevitable, and by mid-century people could live to their thousands making them virtually immortal. Advanced technology will replace our faulty biological body. Nano-technology will make us “artificial”, but that doesn’t take away our status of “human”.

    Now I would like to list advantages, that an artificial body has over a biological one:

    Durability – Bones could be reinforced with ceramic materials or carbon nanotube. Teeth would be diamondoid, and with nanotechnology, they could even have self-cleaning capabilities. Skin would also be diamondoid, meaning there is no possibility to cut the skin. Wider range of digestive enzymes to increase flexibility of the digestive system.

    Health – We could have artificial anti-bodies in our bloodstream. They communicate with rapid acoustic pulses instead of chemical signaling, that relies on diffusion. These artificial anti-bodies would be constructed of polymers or even diamond, instead of protein. These artificial anti-bodies take less space and move faster than other cells of the body. These nano-tech wonders would still work in harmony with our bodies. Using super-biological methods for identifying and neutralizing foreing viruses and bacteria these tiny robots will keep us forever healthy, without fear of illness. Artificial anti-bodies could be powered by glucose, or acoustically. There are already bloodborne microrobots, which won’t be rejected by the immunity system, which show the potential of future nano-robotics. These tiny robots won’t make us immortal, but they allow us to stay at a room, which is contaminated with a flesh-eating virus. We could also drink contaminated water, which would radically reduce thirstiness in third world countries.

    Mind – “Nano-neurons” would allow us to share future’s AI’s vast knowledge. Nano-neurons would also increase speed of thought by twenty thousand fold. At first glance this means, that when playing chess speed game, with 5 seconds time per move, you could think one move for virtually 277 hours. We would also possess mind-uploading capabilities enabling us to swap bodies with others, if we would like. The idea of superintelligence is mind-boggling. True superintelligence means being able to write your own cognitive processes on the most fundamantal level, and conceiving and implementing advanced concepts and plans, which the greatest geniuses would never ever even think of. Superintelligence would be nothing like the present day geniuses. They could change the world over night, and find an obvious solution to problems, that the whole human race has missed. These superintelligences would put human acrobats, scientists and dancers to shame. Being superintelligent means that you easily beat the greatest human brains in practically every field including general wisdom, scientific creativity and social skills. Presumably the superintelligence would run on a super computer of the day. The superintelligence could spin-off alternate versions of itself, code new superintelligences from scratch, or make us humans superintelligences. This superintelligence could be copied thousands and thousands of times, and when the first decade after the first one is created has passed, there could be billions of them among us.

    Abilities – Early in 2006, scientists at the University of Texas at Dallas, led by Dr. Ray H. Baughman, developed artificial muscles 100 times stronger than our own, powered by alcohol and hydrogen. This means that if the muscles of the world’s strongest men were replaced with artificial muscles, they could lift about 30 tons. And 30 tons is equivalent to a mid-size yacht. This an interesting concept, becouse the technology to do this has already been invented. Autopoiesis is Greek for self-creation, allopoiesis is other-creation. Our body engages in both all the time, but in the future we might utilize cybernetic upgrades that allow for personal autopoietic and allopoietic manufacturing. If for instance our legs or arms get cut, we could replace the damaged tissue with help from the construction modules in our other body parts. Instincts to assist in entering hibernation for long space flights required for colonization. Sub-dermal, nanotube-reinforced keratin layer protecting against extreme temperatures, puncture wounds and blunt-force trauma. Improved oxygen storage capacity (Achieved with respirocytes.). Anaerobic environment survival capabilities – layered ontop of improved Low-Oxygen mitochondrial tolerance found in thoroughbred racehorses. Opposable toes for gripping objects with feet. Phermonal communication. Dermal cells can host chloroplast-analogs, outer surface of hair fiber surrounds photosynthesis-capable animals cells capable of transporting generated carbohydrates to follice and bloodstream. “Telekinesis” is possible with “utility fog”. In the future even flight will be possible. This is possible by utilizing high strenght to weight materials, like fullerenes. The wings would weigh only a fraction of our own body, and with increased toleration of wind and acceration, these artificial wings would possess top-speeds of over 500 mph. When in not use the wings would fold to our body.

    Posted by: JHE   June 29, 2008
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12. Thank you for the intelligent comments, adbatstone80.

    Here’s an excerpt from UK physicist Richard Jones’ piece: “But in academia and industry, nanotechnologists are working on a very different set of technologies. Many of these projects will almost certainly prove to be useful, lucrative, or even transformative, but none of them are likely to bring about the transhumanist rapture foreseen by Singularitarians; at least not in the next century.”

    This guy seems to be making a fairly outrageous prediction here – he’s predicting what “will not” happen in the next 100 years. This seems completely unjustified to me. Over the next 100 years, completely new approaches that none of us ever dreamed of could become available. Cognitive technologies – for example progress in advanced artificial intelligence – could completely transform the way research is done.

    I think that all we can say about the coming of molecular nanotech is that it is unlikely to happen in the next five years. Beyond that, I don’t know, and I fail to see how Jones or anyone else can know. In my mind, it is certainly possible that nanobots could be whizzing through my veins as early as 2025.

    Regarding sluggish biotech advances, it currently costs about $60,000 to sequence a human genome, and a handful of research groups are hoping to achieve a $1,000 genome within three years. But two companies, Complete Genomics and BioNanomatrix are collaborating to create a $100 personal genome which they claim could happen in ten years. By 2020, patients will swipe their genome card at a doctor’s office and receive only proactive medical care that will prevent sicknesses before they happen.

    Add to this the dozens of clinical trials now in progress utilizing various nanotechnology techniques to deliver drugs, make changes to our DNA using RNAi technology, and a host of other medical miracles, and we see a research environment appearing that promises biotech cures for most diseases within the next two decades.

    The biotech revolution is here and it is real.

    Comments welcome.

    Posted by: futuretalk   June 29, 2008
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13. JHE, your description of tomorrow’s advanced human is breathtaking.

    I would like to add a couple of ideas. In Fantastic Voyage, Kurzweil and Grossman believe that as we swap our biology for non-biological parts, we will make many lifestyle changes.

    Energizing our body by eating dead plants and animals has not worked very well as evidenced with obesity and food-borne illnesses. They suggest that nanobots could carry nutrients prepared from a nanoreplicators and energize every cell far more efficiently. For those who enjoy the social camaraderie of eating, an artificial stomach could be created to accept real food, where nanobots would change its molecular structure and exit it from the body. Eating would be reduced to a recreational activity.

    And nanotechnologist Robert Freitas predicts that non-biological bodies could do away with other human features such as lungs, which would eliminate the need for breathable air. Eventually, all our biological organs could be eliminated or replaced creating a far more efficient “housing unit.”

    Skin could be replaced with materials that could not be damaged by a knife or bullet wound; but would be far more sensitive to touch than our present skin.

    Tomorrow’s “post-human” would not require sleep, food, air, water, or rest. We would be comfortable in space and on most planets without any protective gear. And of course, we would never experience an unwanted death.

    Comments welcome

    Posted by: futuretalk   June 29, 2008
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14. “Now I would like to list advantages, that an artificial body has over a biological one”

    Speculative waffle.

    Posted by: adbatstone80   June 30, 2008
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