Are we due for a massive cyclical U.S. crisis that finally
spurs institutional change? A regular revolution not tied to the
accelerating curves driving so much growth and innovation?
In large nations big spurts of institutional change tend to
occur every four generations (roughly every 88 years, 1 generation
= 22 years) when economic resources trapped by out-dated,
inefficient systems are shifted over to efficient new systems once
societies reach a cyclical tipping point for change. 
Generational theorists Strauss and Howe
call this tipping point a fourth
turning, a point in time where social power shifts to the
generations too young to have witnessed the previous correction.
They liken this pattern to a forest growth cycle: 1) new saplings
take root, 2) the forest grows tall, 3) dead branches fall and
choke off new species, 4) lightning strikes, the brambles burn and
new saplings are free to grow—repeat.
As seen widely in biology, this sort of change is called
Punctuated
Equilibrium, which contrasts with the gradual evolution that
many scientists intuitively believed to be true but ultimately was
not supported by research nor the fossil record. Similarly, the
historical record shows that the United States has regularly
experienced punctuated social crises, aka fourth turnings,
stretching all the way back to its roots in England. And just like
all of the scientists that deny punctuated evolution/development,
there is a huge % of the population that does not intuitively
believe another fourth turning will occur because they have not
encountered the historical evidence and are used to a relatively
stable socio-economic situation. (Ironically, this blindness seems
to be built into the very fabric of our social system and may
result in more efficient growth when looked at from the broader
context of inter-meshed life systems on our planet.)
Like it or not, cyclical crises pegged to
human generations are real and
should be considered when evaluating the future, right
alongside accelerating change. So the questions we need to ask are
1) “When will the next fourth turning begin?”, 2) “Are there any
dynamics that might break or trump the pattern of punctuated
national change every 88 years?”
A Likely Fourth Turning Scenario
79 years ago, on October 24, 1929, the Great Wall
Street Crash sparked the Great Depression and the last U.S.
fourth
turning. What followed was the New Deal Era, WWII, the transformation of most U.S. socio-economic
sectors and ultimately the birth of what we now refer to as “The
American Dream”.
79 years later the U.S. economy is facing a variety of problems
that could spark a down-turn and a new fourth turning. (cont.)
Oil has risen to $143/barrel, increased Chinese demand for oil
& other resources is pushing up commodity prices, unemployment
has risen to 5.5%, stocks have retreated to bear territory,
analysts are openly talking about the possible bankruptcy of
General Motors and the various airlines, the U.S. dollar has fallen
to an all-time low vs. to its all-time low vs. the Euro
(0.63-to-1.00), the education system is totally broken in
comparison the rest of the developed world, the % of uninsured
Americans continues to rise, the mortgage crisis has hit the
economy hard and is expected to continue exerting a toll through
2010, the country continues to bleed tremendous resources fueling
its efforts in the middle east, and so forth.
In short, it sure looks as though we have some deep, systemic
problems and are likely due for a fourth turning in the
near-future.
To my mind, the most likely fourth turning lightning rod
scenario is oil related. Though the problems that must be solved
are very broad, it’s become crystal clear that our dependence on
oil could very easily result in systemic collapse if prices rise
too high. With OPEC President Chakib
Khelil
forecasting crude oil to rise to $170/barrel by the end of the
summer it’s become reasonable to ponder the cascading effects of
$200+ (or even higher) oil.
If that occurs, the U.S. could see a huge surge in unemployment,
product/service/commodity inflation, and high-profile bankruptcies
that could quickly cascade into a broad depression that could
easily take the rest of the world down with it. Certainly
OPEC and other oil producers will seek to
stabilize the cost of oil, but they may well be powerless to
effectively do so in the face of Peak Oil, rising Chinese
& Indian demand, and a U.S. dollar more-or-less in free-fall.
The dynamic seems to have spiraled out of control, resulting in a
tenuous situation in which a sudden output shortage, political
crisis, or military incident could easily cause crude prices to
skyrocket.
My bet is that this would kick-off a fourth turning.
A Scenario in Which We Avoid the Fourth Turning
Crisis
The one thing that could prevent the next fourth turning is
accelerating change. If we can sustain our current economic balance
for another 7-10 years then it’s conceivable that advances in
solar, other budding fuel energy technologies, power and power
transmission efficiency coupled with the rapid evolution of
computing, nanotech, information sorting, interface, materials
sciences, etc. will mitigate the infrastructure “debt” we have
collectively accumulated since the last fourth turning.
But with peak oil production forecast for as early as
2012 and the steady fall of the U.S. dollar it seems rather
unwise and future-foolish to count on acceleration to bail us out
of this one.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:
Anecdotally: You can feel the fourth turning in the air.
You can hear it in the way the presidential candidates, the
population at large and the rest of the world label the country a
broken system. You can see it in the optimistic change-the-world
attitude of the
Millenials (which Strauss and Howe accurately forecasted more
than a decade ago). You can sense it in the escalating culture
wars that we are experiencing. The forest is full of brambles,
enough sunlight is not getting through and something’s got to
give.
Realistically: This is not about ideology. Ideology is a
symptom of a broken system and can potentially offer some
solutions, whereas a fourth turning is a very real and fundamental
system dynamic that occurs on a regular basis. It’s a pattern that
trumps left vs. right, fast vs. slow, humanist vs. systemist
dichotomies and simply demands better resource allocation and the
required changes. Increasingly it’s not about “if” or “should” but
“when”.
And if that “when” occurs before 2015 (86 years after the
previous turning), then accelerating effects will probably arrive
too late to offset the generational pattern.
Hopefully the lightning won’t strike too early, threatening our
accustomed way of life.
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