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10 Wild Cards for the next decade
Wild cards are highly improbable events but if they do happen, their effects will have severe consequences. Human history has always een punctuated by wild card events, Here's a list of some of the ones I've see discussed lately
-wild card global cooling caused by a prolonged drop in sun spots (vs global warming)
-wild card peak oil and peak gas leading to shortages and resource wars (could include water and other base metals -copper, coal, uranium, as we shift to mining lower grade ores from highly concentrated grades etc)
-wild card 10-20 year mega drought like Australia is now experiencing and North America saw 250 years ago
-wild card increased risks of wild fires due to extreme weather swings
-wild card wealth collapse-individual savings + government pensions less then what's needed to support retiring baby boomers
-wild card-scarcity of strategic raw materials in 10-20 years halt smart technology boom, and lead to resource wars; According to Armin Reller at the University of Augsburg and Tom Graedel Yale University we may be running out of key strategic metals and materials within a few decades if we don’t find substitutes (Antimony 15-20 years to depletion at current rates, Hafnium 10 years; Indium 5-10 years; Platinum 15 years; Silver 15-20 years; Tantalum 20-30 years; Uranium 30-40 years; Zinc 20-30 years
-wild card Bio terrorist attack in next 5 years
-wild card Risk of bird flu pandemic or other pandemics as climate shifts and pathogens migrate into new population areas.
-wild card Shutdown of the ocean conveyor belt, dropping Europe and North America into a deep freeze like in the little ice age in the 17 century.
-wild card Planned population genocide to rightsize the global population back to the limits of earth's carrying capacity-300 to 500 million people vs 6-9 billion
Walter Derzko
Smart Economy
Toronto
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