Unlearning the Future

May 20 2008 / by juldrich

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

The future is unknowable. There are far too many variables for even the most foresighted individual or powerful supercomputer to accurately forecast what tomorrow – let alone next year or the next decade – will look like with precision. Nevertheless, this fact neither discounts the importance of forecasting, nor does it diminish the work that those individuals (myself included) try to do in discerning what the future might hold in store.

I would, however, like to submit that anyone inclined toward thinking about the future should be open to the idea of unlearning, which I define as “the unique skill of jettisoning old knowledge in order to accomodate newer and more relevant information.”

A case in point is this new study suggesting that global warming may not be worsening hurricanes. Now, before anyone gets too not and bothered by the real or perceived flaws in the study’s methodology, I’d like to make clear that it is not my contention that this study is the final word on the topic. Rather, I simply want to highlight it as an example of how continued advances in the development of better and more sophisticated supercomputers, algorithms and ubiqitous sensors are likely to lead to more situations in the future where scientists and researchers produce results that question and challenge conventional wisdom. (To this point, since Hurricane Katrina ripped through New Orleans many people have come to believe that there is a direction connection between global climate change and the frequency and severity of hurricanes; and this belief, in turn, has lead them to predict that more hurricanes are in our future.) (cont.)

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from The Kansas City Star’s Running Cerebro-Transmission, March 7, 2115:

May 19 2008 / by Jason

By Jason M. Vaughn

The world was rocked this morning by the death of America’s first “immortal,” Madeline Marie Samms, who had only three months ago reached her 175th birthday. At around 6:45 a.m., a piano was accidentally dropped on her head as she stepped out of her first-floor Wyandotte County apartment on her way to the market. The irony is that she had once credited this daily walk as the biggest reason for her longevity. It was even more important, she had felt, than her nightly pink-lemonade-flavored telomerase cocktail, her weekly stem-cell injections, and her numerous casual-sex encounters.

“People can’t go a measly few blocks to get their organics?” she’d once wondered, incredulously shaking her head. “They gotta have ‘em delivered by one of those good-for-nothin’ robots? What’s this world comin’ to? That’s what I wanna know. ‘Cause them robots are kinda scary, if you ask me. I mean, why do their eyes have to be red like that? Why does one of their hands always have to be a claw hand? Why on earth do they gotta have a laser saw hangin’ off their shoulder at all times? For God sakes,” she continued, “what do they need teeth for? And just why do those teeth have to be all pointy, like shark teeth? You know, one of them things tried to help me across the street one time. I had to beat him off with my purse. Thought I was bein’ attacked.” (cont.)

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Vision of a Future Suburbia

May 20 2008 / by memebox

Designer babies - 'eugenics' twentyfirst century style

May 19 2008 / by futuretalk

By Dick Pelletier

Science fiction has been preoccupied with technologies to control the characteristics of our children ever since Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World. Now, experts say, human eugenics and the dream of creating genetically-engineered superhumans is about to become reality.

As a species we’ve always looked for ways to be faster, stronger, smarter, and live longer. Many enhancements we take for granted today; blood transfusions, vaccinations, and birth control, seemed unnatural or immoral when first introduced. Yet over time we’ve become accustomed to these controls over our minds and bodies, and have used them to better ourselves and our world.

At the turn of the 20th century, eugenics in America took the form of state-mandated sterilization for people with mental retardation, or somehow deemed to be a dreg on the public. Margaret Sanger started Planned Parenthood during this time to help rid society of the genetically unfit. In Nazi Germany during World War II, eugenics took the form of the Holocaust.

Though the idea of creating designer babies goes against much of our bioethical thinking, over the next two decades, says Futurist Magazine writer Eric Swedin, we will see an ever increasing number of humans born with enhanced genetic characteristics.

Some level of eugenics exists today as evidenced when parents wish for a specific gender in their child. More than 2,000 couples have spent $20,000 each for gender-selection treatments offered by pioneer Doctor Jeffrey Steinberg at clinics in Los Angeles and Phoenix. (cont.)

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Robotic Neuro-Surgery and Israel Goes All-Electric

May 20 2008 / by Marisa Vitols

The Future Scanner Daily Top 5 serves to highlight 5 of the best scans submitted to the Future Scanner during the last 24 hours.

• Britain: Hybrid Embryo Ban Is Defeated
  - Scanned by FutureFly

• Billionaire oilman backs wind power
  - Scanned by Alvis

• Israel vows to be all-electric vehicles by 2020
  - Scanned by Eriks Brolis

• Civilization’s Last Chance
  - Scanned by Eriks Brolis

• World’s First Robotic Neuro-Surgery
  - Scanned by juldrich

iPlant seminar video

May 18 2008 / by iPlant

Microdrones Will Transform Low-Cost Videography

May 20 2008 / by Alvis

Back when I lived in LA and worked on reality TV shows I would often ponder the future of low-cost video production (which is what enabled both the genre and the explosion of online video content) and imagine a variety of camera placements that would soon be enabled by new technologies. I was particularly excited about the potential for aerial drone cams that could follow characters in new ways, allow for low cost establishing shots and get to previously unreachable positions. And so I was psyched to come across this demo video of a hovering Microdrone camera that allows for all of the aforementioned:

Of course, it’s been around for about a year (yet another awesome technology that I’ve missed at inception) and is already being used for surveillance, exploration, television and more. It currently runs about $40,000 U.S. but as it drops in cost I expect that reality TV producers, documentarians, news producers and low-budget movie producers across the globe will employ it to shoot previously unthinkable footage. (cont.)

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Questions Only the Future (and Maybe Dionne Warwick) Can Answer

May 16 2008 / by Jason

By Jason M. Vaughn

Will ABC’s “Lost” conclude in a way that leaves me fulfilled? Or will I still not understand what that smoke monster thingy is?

If Victoria’s Secret ever comes out with an invisible bra, could anyone promise me that this bra will also be edible and packed with synthetic anti-oxidants called “Victorias”?

Will Michael Jackson’s nose outlive him, and then, after a dip in some supercharged stem-cell bath, possibly regenerate a brand-new Michael, or at least come back on stormy nights to haunt Janet?

Will overpopulation drive certain less-than-stable individuals to the realization that humans would make an excellent food source? (cont.)

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The Race to Connect Africa: Apple vs. Microsoft

May 19 2008 / by Alvis

With the rapid rise of the iPhone and Microsoft’s announcement that it will back the One Laptop per Child initiative, a massive battle for the African computer market may be shaping up sooner than expected.

The AP reports a new deal between Apple and cell provider Orange that will bring the iPhone to “Austria, Belgium, the Dominican Republic, Egypt, Jordan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland and African markets later this year.”

At the same time, Microsoft has finally agreed to provide Windows to the now promising OLPC initiative after years of ridiculing the then far-fetched project.

Though the iPhone presently costs more than a OLPC PC, $399 vs. $100, that price is due to sharply drop (perhaps to the $100 -$200 range) with the imminent release of the new 3G iPhone, which itself may be priced at just $199 if rumors about a hefty AT&T subsidy prove correct.

While lack of comm infrastructure and politics will certainly remain the primary barriers to diffusion, it looks as though these low-cost yet high-value products, driven by large companies getting accustomed to rapidly exploding markets in which first-mover advantage is critical, may catalyze a perfect storm for connectivity in under-developed nations, most notably African countries. (cont.)

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The Mamas and the Papa

May 19 2008 / by Bora

This past Mother’s Day, it occurred to me that the meaning of parenthood is constantly evolving. While social trends, such as increasing divorce rates and rising numbers of same-sex marriages are major contributing factors, science is adding another layer to the evermore complex meaning of the modern family. A good example of this stems from the latest developments in genetic manipulation and assisted reproductive technology.

In a recent report, a British team of researchers at Newcastle University announced that they have created a human embryo conceived from three parents, in which the nuclear DNA is inherited from the mother and the father but the mitochondrial DNA is inherited from a third party. The three-parent embryo was created in an effort to prevent genetic diseases associated with defective maternal mitochondrial DNA. (cont.)

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Inflection Point: Tissue Regeneration

May 19 2008 / by juldrich

By Jack Uldrich

Cross-posted from www.jumpthecurve.net

One of my preferred methods for trying to understand where the future might be headed is to look for those areas where technology can address a compelling human need. To this point, this past weekend I read with great interest this opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal entitled “Why We Need a Market for Human Organs.” It’s a well-reasoned piece and the sentiment appeals to my more libertarian and free market-oriented sensibilities. Nevertheless, I am of the opinion that within the next 10-15 years advances in tissue and organ regeneration technology will render the need for “organ markets” obsolete.

I have written about this idea before, but I’d encourage you to read this new government report entitled “2020: A New Vision – A Future for Regenerative Medicine.” According to the report the current world market for replacement organ therapies is in excess of $350 billion. More disturbing, however, is the fact that there are currently over 100,000 patients are on a waiting list for an organ donation and an estimated 8,000 people on that list will die this year while waiting for a transplant. (cont.)

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Robotic systems to boost economy, standard of living

May 19 2008 / by futuretalk

By Dick Pelletier

Since the dawn of humanity and the advent of civilized life, humans have depended on technology. Carving out flint stones, controlling fire, inventing the wheel, and developing the printing press have brought us to self-serving gas stations, ATMs and automated checkouts. Technology has always sparked the engine that drives civilization forward, and will continue to be essential for progress into and through the extended future.

Experts predict that by 2015, automation will further evolve with “smart” radio-frequency identification chips (RFID), which will identify store items you select and automatically charge them to your credit card as you walk out the door.

More sophisticated robotics will take us to the next level. By 2025, auto-drive systems installed in cars, trucks and busses will speak perfect human, and armed with superior intelligence and senses, along with radar and infra-red abilities, will quickly make driverless vehicles the safest method of transportation.

Two-legged robotic systems will advance during this same time-frame. Sony Qrio, Honda Asimo, and Toyota Personal Robot models will morph into machines that see, hear, move and manipulate objects at levels roughly equivalent, and in some cases superior, to humans. (cont.)

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